China’s J-20 Fleet Tops U.S. F-22 Numbers — Could Reach 1,000 by 2030

The Chinese Air Force is rapidly expanding its fleet of fifth-generation J-20 fighter jets, the number of which, according to the latest estimates, has already surpassed that of the U.S. F-22 Raptors.

This was reported by The War Zone.

When the first J-20 was spotted at the airfield of the aircraft plant in Chengdu in late 2010, many Western experts were skeptical about the project.

At the time, the aircraft was often viewed merely as a technology demonstrator, rather than a future production fighter.

However, the program’s subsequent development completely disproved these assessments: after further design refinements, the J-20 entered mass production, and by 2016 it was officially adopted by the Air Force of the People’s Liberation Army of China.

Since then, the aircraft has undergone continuous upgrades. One of the key development milestones was the introduction of Chinese-made engines, which gradually replaced the Russian powerplants on production models.

At the same time, China has developed a two-seat variant of the J-20 — a rather unusual choice for a fifth-generation fighter. In addition, the aircraft got upgraded avionics and new types of weapons with an increased ammunition load.

However, the speed of producing these machines was no less of an achievement.

At the end of 2022, Western defense analysts estimated the J-20 fleet to consist of at least 200 aircraft. This estimate was based primarily on an analysis of the serial numbers marked on the aircraft and corresponded to four production batches.

Meanwhile, the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) took a more conservative view in early 2023, estimating that there were at least 150 J-20s in service.

At the same time, analysts at the institute predicted that by the end of 2023, the number of Chinese fifth-generation fighter jets would exceed the U.S. fleet of F-22 Raptors, since, according to their estimates, the production rate of the J-20 had effectively doubled over the previous three years.

As of today, the United States has 185 F-22 fighter jets, but only 143 of them are assigned to combat units. The remaining aircraft are used for training, testing, and other support tasks. 

In mid-2024, Janes published a detailed analysis of the J-20 program. According to its assessment, over the course of approximately 11 months — beginning in July 2023 — China had introduced more than 70 new fighter jets into service, bringing its total fleet to approximately 195 aircraft.

An analysis of satellite imagery also showed that, as of May 2024, J-20 aircraft were in service with 12 aviation brigades of the PLA Air Force, three of which had already been fully re-equipped with these fighters. In addition, back then the J-20s had already entered service with all five of China’s theater commands.

In the fall of 2024, Andreas Rupprecht, a researcher specializing in Chinese military aviation, identified an aircraft with a serial number indicating that it was at least the 300th J-20 produced in the tenth production batch.

The British think tank RUSI, in turn, concluded that by the end of 2025, the Chinese industry could reach a production rate of about 120 J-20s per year. According to its estimates, by then the PLA Air Force would already be operating about 300 such fighters in at least 13 aviation regiments.

Given this pace, RUSI predicts that by 2030, China could have about 1,000 J-20 fighter jets of all variants.

As Andreas Rupprecht told The War Zone, by mid-2026, China most likely has already received about 500 J-20s.

This assessment is supported by the fact that these aircraft are in service with 14 combat aviation units, as well as at three training and flight test centers that operate mixed fleets.