U.S. and Europe Have No Plan for a Coordinated Russia-China Attack

Western experts and military leaders in the U.S. and Europe do not have a plan for how to respond to or prepare for a coordinated attack by Russia and China.

According to sources cited by The Atlantic, they believe such a scenario is plausible: Russia could attack a NATO member in Eastern Europe while China launches an operation against Taiwan.

About a year ago, General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, publicly warned about the risk of a two-front war against Russia and China and called on European allies to help the U.S. prepare.

“Let’s be clear: this is a scenario we are not currently prepared for… NATO strategists are aware of this gap in their planning, but they have not taken steps to address it,” said Florence Gaub, director of the research division at the NATO Defense College in Rome, one of the alliance’s main academies for military officers.

According to the publication, the window of opportunity for an attack on the West may never have seemed more favorable. The U.S. is still at war with Iran, having moved a significant portion of its ships and aircraft from Asia and Europe to reinforce its forces in the Middle East.

According to estimates, 80% of the U.S. military’s THAAD air-defense missile inventory has been depleted.

NATO members in Eastern Europe, such as Romania, Poland, and the Baltic states, have repeatedly faced violations of their airspace by Russian drones, missiles, and fighter jets.

Earlier this month, the German government discovered a Russian-made drone at Leipzig Airport equipped with a warhead. It was reportedly being prepared for an attack on a Ukrainian cargo aircraft.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Russia could try to test NATO’s resolve in the next few years by launching a cyberattack or invading one of the alliance’s member states.

“Such a move would have a greater chance of weakening NATO if Russia timed it to coincide with a Chinese attack on Taiwan,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, the former chair of NATO’s Military Committee.

In June, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published an extensive report on the best ways for the U.S. to counter an axis led by China and Russia. However, Eric Heginbotham, a military wargaming expert at MIT’s Security Studies Program who worked closely with CSIS, said that none of the leading think tanks in the U.S. or Europe has conducted a wargame focused on this scenario.