Russia Could Attack NATO Countries “Within Months” To Test Alliance Unity

British intelligence believes NATO could face a direct challenge from Russia “within months” aimed at testing the Alliance’s resilience, as Moscow believes U.S. President Donald Trump is focused on Iran and that there are divisions within Ukraine’s leadership.

The Daily Mail reported on this.

According to the newspaper’s sources, Russia will seek to exploit a possible change in the United Kingdom’s resolve following the change in Prime Minister.

“There’s now a strong belief Putin is preparing some sort of direct confrontation with NATO at some point over the next couple of months. There are a number of factors playing into this – the belief Trump is distracted by Iran and signs of division among the Ukrainian leadership,” intelligence sources told the publication.

The source indicated that another factor was Putin’s dissatisfaction with the course of the war in Ukraine: “There’s a feeling that if he [Putin] can’t somehow change the momentum on the battlefield, the war will be lost.”

At the same time, the source added that a change of government in the United Kingdom could also encourage Russia to “test Burnham and see whether he can exploit the differences between the previous and new administrations.”

“Russia should be in no doubt about the resolve of this Government and this Prime Minister to stand against Russian aggression, not just in Ukraine, but also any aggression against the UK and our allies,” new UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting noted.

According to a report by the Swedish Parliament’s Defense Committee, Russia could attack NATO countries “relatively soon” if it believes the timing is favorable for testing the response of Alliance members and Article 5’s collective defense commitment.

The report emphasizes the growing uncertainty of Europe’s security situation and highlights that an armed attack against Sweden or NATO allies cannot be ruled out.

According to the document, Russia could take such a step even without the military capability traditionally considered necessary for an attack.

Analysts estimate that the most likely scenario involves a sudden attempt to seize a limited but strategically important territory — most likely the 80-kilometer Suwałki Gap between the Kaliningrad region and Belarus. Other potential targets include the islands of Gotland, Svalbard, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa, or the Narva area in Estonia. More details can be found in our special article “Unannounced War: How Russia Is Attacking Europe.”

At the same time, it is emphasized that Russia would not necessarily need to immediately seize a country: the main goal could be to undermine trust in NATO and its functioning in the event of a “weak” response to an invasion. This would not only give Putin’s regime a significant geopolitical victory but would also leave European countries highly vulnerable to further attacks.