Dutch intelligence: Russia will be ready for a new war a year after the end of hostilities in Ukraine

The Netherlands is preparing for a possible conflict with Russia, believing that it will be able to restore its capabilities within a year after the end of the war with Ukraine.

Vice Admiral Peter Risink, Director of the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD, reported this.

The intelligence agency head warned of deepening geopolitical, economic and military ties between Russia and China, as well as growing risks for Europe.

In its annual report, published late last month, the intelligence service reported an increase in hybrid attacks by China and Russia against the Netherlands and other European countries.

MIVD has identified several Russian cyber operations against the Netherlands. For example, in 2024, a Russian hacker group sabotaged the digital management system of a public institution. A cyber operation was also detected against the country’s vital infrastructure to prepare for a sabotage, which, however, was unsuccessful.

Russia also performed cyberattacks on the websites of political parties and public transportation companies in the Netherlands. This was an attempt to make it more difficult for citizens to vote in the European Parliament elections.

According to Resink, such interference is not unique to the Netherlands.

“We have information about Russian interference in various electoral processes, and not only through disinformation. This applies to several countries, mostly those that were previously under Russian influence,” he shared.

Special attention in the MIVD report is paid to the build-up of the Russian army. In 2024, Russia’s defense budget reached $149 billion, twice as much as in 2015.

“Russia is producing much more artillery than it needs for the war with Ukraine. We see the movement of new units to the NATO borders,” Resink noted, while emphasizing that the agency does not predict a new war in the near future.

However, he warned that if the war with Ukraine ends, Russia could be ready for a new conflict in a year’s time, provided that the current production rates and political will for war are maintained. Amid these threats, the Netherlands, like other NATO countries, has stepped up its defense readiness.

The United States in NATO’s defense structure

In addition to the threats from China and Russia, European intelligence agencies are closely monitoring political changes in the United States, particularly after Donald Trump’s return to power. Since his re-election, Trump, according to critics, has been trying to take political control of the U.S. intelligence agencies by cutting funding, eliminating opponents, and appointing loyalists.

“It’s not a very nice signal from the United States when you see the leadership of the intelligence services… well, forced to look for another job,” the director of military intelligence in the Netherlands stated.

He called the situation “a good look in the mirror” for Europe, which emphasizes the need for its own autonomous security strategy. Despite maintaining strong cooperation with the United States, Risink emphasized that Europe “cannot turn a blind eye to this.”

“We are weighing the level of our cooperation, the scope and the intensity that we share… and that may mean that we end up changing the way we have to cooperate with the United States,” he concluded.