Poland Sees Risk of Russian “Little Green Men” in the Baltic States

Colonel Paweł Szota, Head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, said that Poland faces a real and immediate military threat, primarily from Russia.

He said this in an interview with the Polish Rzeczpospolita.

In his first interview with Polish media, the intelligence chief said that Vladimir Putin has become a hostage to his own failure in Ukraine and is likely to pursue further escalation.

In his view, Russia sees Poland and NATO’s eastern flank as obstacles to its imperialistic ambitions.

“Given what is happening in Ukraine and Russia’s current military difficulties, there is an additional cause for concern: Moscow may continue to escalate,” he said.

Colonel Szota said Russia is capable of sustaining military operations in Ukraine for several more years. The Kremlin is prepared to sacrifice public welfare, economic growth and investment if it allows Russia to end the war while claiming victory. That, he said, is Putin’s objective.

The Head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency said the service is also considering scenarios involving Russian provocations against the Baltic states, including operations by the so-called “little green men.”

“Russia is steadily pushing red lines and testing NATO’s response. The cost of such provocations for Moscow is low, while the Alliance has responded primarily through political measures, encouraging further escalation,” he added.

Szota also expressed concern over Belarus’ growing dependence on Moscow, particularly through the development of facilities capable of supporting nuclear weapons delivery systems, including the Oreshnik missile system, as well as through joint nuclear exercises.

According to a report by Sweden’s parliamentary defense committee, Russia could attack NATO countries “relatively soon” if it concludes that the conditions are favorable for testing the Alliance’s response and the credibility of Article 5.

The Defense Committee brings together representatives of all political parties represented in the Swedish parliament. Its work serves as the basis for the country’s long-term defense planning.

The report highlights growing uncertainty over the security situation in Europe and states that an armed attack on Sweden or its NATO allies cannot be ruled out. According to the document, Russia could resort to such a step even without the level of military capability traditionally considered necessary for launching an attack.