WSJ: Russia Could Attack NATO Country Before the War in Ukraine Ends

U.S. intelligence has warned that Russia could try to test NATO’s resolve by attacking one of its member states within the next few years.

The warning is contained in new U.S. intelligence assessments cited by The Wall Street Journal.

The assessments outline several possible scenarios for Russian aggression, ranging from cyberattacks to a limited ground incursion into NATO territory.

Previously, U.S. intelligence had assessed that President Vladimir Putin was unlikely to provoke a confrontation with a NATO member while Russia remained engaged in the war in Ukraine. However, that assessment changed earlier this year.

According to U.S. officials, the shift reflects the increasingly difficult position of Russian forces in Ukraine, as well as growing domestic pressure on Putin to deliver a victory.

Ukrainian drones are inflicting increasingly significant damage on Russia’s military and oil industry, while Russian forces are making only limited gains along the front line and suffering heavy losses in the process.

The report notes that if Russia were to attack a NATO member while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, its objective would be to sow division within the Alliance.

As Putin seeks to consolidate the gains he wants in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials are assessing whether Russia intends to step up its aggressive actions against European allies in the near future.

Potential threats range from cyberattacks and the deployment of irregular armed groups to seize territory, to a limited military incursion along NATO’s eastern flank.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, such actions could occur anytime between this autumn and 2029. At the same time, the likelihood of the most extreme scenario – a limited ground invasion – remains low, although it is expected to increase over time.

As previously reported, Lithuania’s military intelligence warned that Russia could use captured Ukrainian drones to carry out attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states.

Previously, the leaders of Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland had also warned that Western intelligence agencies had detected signs of Russian preparations for provocations and attacks targeting infrastructure in the Baltic region. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has publicly confirmed those assessments.