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The concentration of huge forces, sometimes reaching a ratio of one to eight, as well as the occasional change in tactics by the invaders didn’t leave the situation unchanged. And if we analyze the changes in control of territories in 2024 using the DeepState service, the Ukrainian Defence Forces (hereinafter referred to as the UDF) lost control of more than 3,600 km² of territory.
Moreover, in the entire year of 2023, the enemy captured about 540 km², while the Defense Forces liberated about 430 km².
The largest losses of territory are in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. In the Donetsk region, the enemy concentrated the greatest offensive potential and, unfortunately, achieved the greatest success.
The pace of the enemy’s offensive increased in the second half of 2024. Below are the approximate areas in all areas except for the Kursk oblast:
After the liberation of the right bank of the Kherson region in the fall of 2022 and due to the presence here of large water barriers, active fighting should have ceased here. However, the location of the regional capital and several settlements directly on the Dnipro River enables the invaders to regularly bombard them with artillery and terrorize the civilian population using FPV drones and other means.
This situation clearly was unacceptable for the UDF, and therefore, a year later, the Ukrainian defense launched an operation, trying to push the invaders from the left bank of the Dnipro River near a number of settlements. Among them, the village of Krynky stood out for holding its defense the longest.
During 2024, the enemy managed to eliminate the UDF’s bridgehead in the Krynky area and to establish control over most of the islands in the old Dnipro Riverbed.
According to available information, in total, during the year, the invaders seized about 95 km², which as of December 2023 was under the control of the UDF.
Over half of the territories were lost after the enemy liquidated the Ukrainian Armed Forces bridgehead in Krynky and advanced in the surrounding islands.
Moreover, having studied the experience of the battle for the bridgehead, or rather, having taken into account its experience in engaging forces to isolate the combat area and subsequently eliminate the bridgehead, the enemy began preparations for mirror actions. Their goal is to draw the UDF from other directions. Although the enemy troops there have significantly decreased compared to the period of the UDF foothold’s existence, it remains sufficient for both defense and tactical landing operations.
The Zaporizhzhia region area lies between Kamianske and Hulyaypole settlements. Here, in 2024, the enemy’s offensive activity was the lowest compared to other operational areas.
This is partly because several combat-ready units from this area were engaged in countering the UDF near the village of Krynky in the Kherson region. Additionally, in early fall, some of the most trained units were redeployed to Russia’s Kursk oblast.
According to available data, the UDF lost control of 97 km² of territory. The most significant gains for the enemy were in the areas near the village of Robotyne, where they regained territory lost during the UDF offensive in 2023. Other changes remain localized.
On the other side, in the area of Kamianske, the UDF managed to improve the tactical situation and take control of about 5 km² of territory.
Throughout the year, enemy forces were most active in the Donetsk region. For a more detailed analysis, we will conditionally divide the combat actions into the following two main areas:
In this area, the enemy maintained and developed the largest offensive in 2024. After prolonged fighting, the invaders captured the city of Avdiivka, then continued their offensive on the fortified area of the UDF (which was built in 2015) near Karlivka village and captured it.
One of the reasons was relocation to the area by invaders of their 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, which had previously been operating in the Luhansk region. Thus, the enemy dramatically increased the concentration of its offensive forces in the area.
Another precondition for this was the loss of key positions of the UDF in the area of Ocheretyne village; they were captured by the enemy.
Later, the enemy managed to replenish its losses, increase its efforts, and gradually make a breakthrough to operational depth, establishing control over the town of Selydove and eliminating the Nevelske bridgehead.
As a result of the battles, he took control of the fortified areas and the towns of Krasnohorivka and Vuhledar, and came to the immediate vicinity of the settlements of Velyka Novosilka and Pokrovsk. It is now finalizing the operation to capture the town of Kurakhove.
By capturing Vuhledar and a fortified area near it, the invaders regained control of the territories liberated by the UDF in 2023.
In total, the enemy managed to take control of more than 2,400 km² of territory over the year, advancing along the entire length of the area between Velyka Novosilka and Ocheretyne, with the maximum depth of the captured territories being 45 km. This shortened the distance to the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region to less than 10 km south of Pokrovsk.
Another part of the Donetsk region is the area between the settlements of New York and Siversk. Over the past year, the enemy has conducted successful offensives in the area of Toretsk and New York settlements, significantly pushing the front line away from Horlivka city (which has been occupied since 2014) and creating conditions for a further offensive south of Kostiantynivka.
In general, the enemy achieved significant success in the Toretsk sector, managing to break through the UDF’s defense for the first time since 2022, advancing more than 22 km along the front line and to a depth of 10 km, and subsequently making further gains in the urban area of Toretsk.
In the Kostiantynivka sector, the enemy has been fighting in the area of Chasiv Yar for a year. Near Klishchiyivka, he regained the position lost in 2023, and a significant part of the territory remains in the gray zone. It captured most of the town of Chasiv Yar, creating the preconditions for a further offensive on the town of Kostiantynivka.
In the Siverskyi sector, the enemy had success, advancing almost along the entire front line of about 35 km, but failed to eliminate the Siverskyi bridgehead of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In general, the enemy troops on the Konstantinovka and Siversk directions were weakened due to the movement of a number of their units to the Kursk direction, which significantly reduced its offensive potential.
Over the course of the year, the enemy managed to seize control of at least 335 km² of territory. The accuracy of this estimate is complicated by the existence of a significant gray zone south of the town of Chasiv Yar.
Throughout the year, the enemy launched large-scale offensive operations in the Liman and Kupiansk sectors. These directions became separated after the enemy established control over the settlement of Kruhliakivka. As a result, they disrupted the logistics link between the Ukrainian Defence Forces in Borova and Kupiansk.
In both areas, the enemy failed to fully achieve his objectives but has managed to overcome the water obstacle and create small bridgeheads on the western bank of the Chornyi Zherebets and Oskil rivers. North of Kupyansk, it also succeeded in forcing the Oskil River and establishing a bridgehead on its right bank, which it successfully expanded in December.
Unlike in the Donetsk region, the enemy was unable to develop an offensive along the entire length of the front line. On the section from Terny to Bilohorivka (upper), there was a slight fluctuation in the forward edge, and the UDF was able to partially regain the positions lost in 2023 and prevent the enemy from advancing. A similar situation is observed on the Novovodyane-Rayhorodka section. That is, in the Liman sector, the UDF was able to almost completely stop the enemy’s advance in November-December 2024.
In total, as a result of the offensive during the year, the enemy gained control over at least 479 km² of territory.
As a result of a successful offensive in May 2024, the enemy gained control of 211 km² of territory and managed to take control of 13 settlements.
The Ukrainian Defence Forces not only managed to stop the enemy offensive, but also regained control of the territories in certain areas.
Overall, the enemy failed to capitalize on their initial success and was unable to achieve the objectives of approaching the city of Kharkiv within artillery range or establishing the proposed “sanitary zone”.
In general, the Kharkiv offensive operation of the year 2024 ended in failure for the enemy, as of December 31, 2024.
In August 2024, the UDF launched a mirror military operation, and, within a month, managed to take control of 1,100 km² of territory.
Subsequently, the enemy reinforced its reserves to stabilize the situation, followed by counteroffensives. By the end of the year, they continued their counteroffensive operations, and it was in this area that the involvement of North Korean troops was recorded.
As a result of the counteroffensives, the UDF controlled about 460 km² at the end of the year.
The enemy will continue its efforts to complete the takeover of Kurakhove, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, advance towards the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region with the prospect of starting hostilities in the region, and increase its control over the territory of the Donetsk region in all directions.
We also should expect increased efforts to eliminate the UDF’s footholds on the left bank of the Oskol River and expand their own on the right bank.
There is also a high probability of further attempts to land on the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson or other regions to draw out the already limited reserves of the UDF.
It will continue to push the UDF out of Kursk oblast and increase its firepower on the Ukrainian border.
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