Lithuania Warns of Risk of Russian Provocations in Baltic States and Poland

Russia may view the Baltic states and Poland as its next targets for escalation due to setbacks in the war against Ukraine.

This was stated by Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas on the Lithuanian broadcaster LRT.

According to him, since Russia has been unable to achieve victory in the war against Ukraine and fulfill its objectives, it is seeking to launch a new round of escalation, this time against NATO countries. Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory—particularly on fuel infrastructure facilities—as well as problems with fuel supplies are intensifying internal pressure on the Russian leadership.

“The Kremlin, Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new victory. In that case, the Baltic states and Poland become the immediate targets,” Kaunas said.

These remarks came after Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed the existence of intelligence regarding possible Russian provocations against Poland or the Baltic states.

According to him, this refers to potential attacks on critical infrastructure, which Russia could carry out using both conventional military means and as part of hybrid operations. The Commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, stated that there are currently no signs of Russia preparing for conventional military aggression against Lithuania or other Baltic states. However, he did not rule out isolated military provocations.

“I would say that there is no visible conventional threat or any such risk today, but we cannot rule out the possibility of conventional means being used to provoke something,” he told reporters on Sunday.

In response to potential threats, Lithuania has already stepped up security for critical infrastructure. Bridges, electrical power substations, gas transmission infrastructure, and communications hubs have received additional protection.

The Ministry of the Interior reported that security is being provided by the Public Security Service (VST), and the Armed Forces will be called upon to carry out tasks if necessary.

Earlier, Militarnyi reported that Lithuania had begun negotiations with the US regarding the potential deployment of American nuclear weapon on its territory.