German intelligence: If Ukraine falls, Russia could start a war with NATO before 2030

Russia will be ready for a war against NATO countries before 2030 if the war in Ukraine ends soon, according to German intelligence.

Bruno Kahl, Head of the German Federal Intelligence Service, stated this to DW in response to a question about possible Russian aggression in 2029-2030.

“This timeframe is based on very reliable data, but it also depends on specific developments. So if the military conflict in Ukraine calms down earlier, then, of course, all the resources, both material and technical, including weapons, and human resources, conscription, will be able to pose a threat to Europe much earlier. And then it may happen that the threat, the blackmail from Russia may happen even earlier than we expected,” Kahl stated.

The head of German intelligence emphasized that Germany, Europe, and the territories of NATO member states are already the scene of Russian activities that go beyond the usual level of espionage.

“We have witnessed hybrid influence, in particular during the elections that took place in Europe, and even sabotage on the territory of Germany and other European countries, which is carried out in an unprecedentedly brutal manner. We have to be prepared for this threat to persist regardless of how the war in Ukraine develops,” he says.

According to Kal, Russia has considerations to test how reliable the fifth article of the NATO charter on collective defense is. He notes that this has recently been discussed even outside the intelligence services, for example, in the media in Russia.

According to the Head of German intelligence, Russia is seeking to return to the world order that existed in the 1990s, mainly the old NATO borders, which did not yet include such Eastern European countries as Bulgaria, Hungary, the Baltic States, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia. Russia wants to expand its influence in these states.

For the Russian authorities, the revision of borders would be “desirable without the Americans in Europe. So far, only Russians have wanted this. We really hope that the Americans do not want this.”

Europe is preparing for war with Russia

This month, the European Union released a “White Paper on European Defense,” in which it recognized Russia as a fundamental threat and outlined a strategic development plan that will strengthen the defense capabilities of the EU and Ukraine over the next five years.

The European Commission presented the Strategic Defense Plan along with details of the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 economic project, which provides financial leverage to increase investment in defense capabilities for EU countries.

While the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 project strengthens pan-European defense capabilities through new financial means, the White Paper defines a new approach to defense and investment needs.

These measures are designed to develop solutions for short-term emergency support to Ukraine as well as long-term needs to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities.