The russian army has driven itself into a dead end in Ukraine. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War.

The initial russian military-political leadership completely failed. Airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities did not succeed. to force a change of government in Ukraine. The government in Ukraine has not changed. As of now, we are witnessing the culmination of the russian army’s efforts, analysts say.

The logical step would be to abandon further active action. Make a new plan and accumulate resources for its implementation. Instead, the russians are acting differently. They continue to provide additional limited resources to support a previous plan that has already failed.
Even the possible fall of Mariupol, according to experts, will not allow russia to release enough combat power. They assess the losses during the storming of this city as dramatic on the russian side.

Russia is expected to focus its efforts on storming Kryvyi Rih, which should be a milestone in the capture of Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro. However, in the coming weeks, the russians are unlikely to be able to do so. Kryvyi Rih is a large city with a population of 600,000, which, according to the Ukrainian side, is well fortified. Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhya are much more difficult goals than Mariupol, where russia has thrown considerable forces and has not yet achieved final success for almost a month. So russia is likely to get stuck on these frontiers.

Russia continues to gether its naval infantry from all fleets for a possible landing operation in Odesa. These are some of the most capable units of the russian federation. However, russia will probably dare to take such a step only after it would be possible to provide a land corridor from the Crimea to Odesa, which is not expected in the near future. The possibility of landing operation in Odesa in the coming weeks is unlikely.

Such a stalemate is not a precondition for a truce. The russians are digging in the occupied territories and trying to establish political control there. It seems that they plan to maintain their positions indefinitely. Statements by russian politicians about Kyiv’s capitulation in May indicate about Moscow`s revised plans for war.

Both sides will carry out offensive actions which will result in numerous victims. Russian troops will continue shelling and bombing in an attempt to break the will of Ukrainians. During this period, support from the West will be critical for Ukraine.