Former Head of Poland’s National Security Bureau Does Not Rule Out Russian Provocation in the Suwałki Gap

Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, does not rule out hybrid provocations by Russia in the Suwałki Gap.

He stated this in an interview with European Pravda.

Among the possible scenarios, he mentioned the use of drones and even mortar or artillery shelling from the territory of Belarus.

At the end of 2023, Jacek Siewiera stated that the countries on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO should be thinking about a potential conflict with Russia within the next three years.

“And since then, if anything has influenced a change in that position, it is, at most, the heroism of Ukrainian soldiers who continue to hold back Russia on the front line,” he shared in an interview with European Pravda.

Therefore, at present, the possibility of a ground operation by the Russian Federation from the direction of Brest is not well-founded.

“Of course, today Russia does not have the capability to open a new front using conventional means,” the former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau added.

In the conversation, he outlined two other possible forms of aggressive actions by Russia against the European Union and NATO countries. Regarding the Baltic states, the focus is on the Suwałki Gap:

“Another matter is hybrid provocations in the Suwałki Gap – attacks using drones or even artillery (mortar) shelling from the territory of Belarus. These are scenarios that cannot be ruled out,” Jacek Siewiera pointed out.

The other possibility involves Russian airstrikes on NATO territory, particularly targeting strategic sites, or acts of aggression carried out using aircraft.

“All of this not only cannot be ruled out, but also seems like a very real direction for escalation,” he stated.

The only way to avoid it, according to the former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, is to develop appropriate defense capabilities by the countries on NATO’s eastern flank and the entire European Union.