European diplomats expect the United States to reduce its military contingent in Europe by 20,000 troops.

The Washington Post reported on this.

Three European diplomats told the publication that they expect the withdrawal of 20,000 US troops. These were sent by the Biden administration after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“I would not be surprised if, at some point, these troops return to their base in America. The forces were deployed at the peak of emergency planning. So if they leave, it will be a return to normal, so to speak,” the NATO diplomat said.

Analysts believe that if European countries send their troops to Ukraine to support the ceasefire, it could also complicate US efforts to fill any gaps in other regions. This will be the subject of negotiations with the Trump administration.

According to the U.S. European Command, since 2022, the number of U.S. forces in Europe has ranged from 75,000 to 105,000. About 63,000 were there on a permanent basis, and the rest changed during rotations.

In addition to forces stationed at American or NATO allied bases in Europe. The US contingent also plays a key role in the command and control of NATO forces in the region.

The United States also provides Europe with capabilities in which it lags behind, such as intelligence and long-range weapons.

In mid-February in Poland, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the Trump administration recognizes the importance of the presence of US troops in Europe to deter Russia.

At the same time, he warned against the idea that this presence would last forever. According to him, further decisions in the coming years will be “part of a larger discussion” in Washington and among allies.

Friedrich Merz, German chancellor candidate and leader of the Christian Democratic Union, believes that Europe must be prepared to defend itself without the United States.

“We have to be prepared for the fact that Donald Trump will no longer unconditionally support NATO’s mutual defense commitments,” he told reporters.

Read more about what Europe needs to do to be able to defend itself against Russia in our article Defending Europe without the United States: A Kiel Institute Assessment.