Russia and Belarus are likely to build up their troops on the border with Ukraine in order to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donbas or the south.
This was stated by the spokesman of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby, during his briefing on October 20, RFE/RL reports.
The United States is monitoring the actions of the Russian Federation and Belarus, in particular, the deployment of more Russian troops on the territory of the latter.
John Kirby answered questions about a possible Russian offensive from the side of Belarus.
He recalled that Belarus had provided its territory for the advance of Russian troops before, as well as for their retreat from the north of Ukraine later.
“Belarus has certainly provided material, moral and material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, we have not seen Belarusian troops actually fighting in Ukraine. And while we’re mindful of this new arrangement between Russia and Belarus to deploy more forces from both countries and create a sort of territorial defense apparatus, as they’ve talked about it, and conduct exercises, it remains to be seen whether this is any major strategic change Belarus regarding interference in Ukraine,” the spokesman said.
He added that there are currently no signs that Belarus is ready to enter the war against Ukraine directly.
At the same time, he suggested that the creation of territorial defense and a joint grouping of troops with Russia could be aimed at holding the Ukrainian forces back.
“So, this may be an attempt to simply see if they can divert the Ukrainian armed forces to this part of their border so that they cannot be used elsewhere in the Donbass or in the south. It can be a tactic. But that remains to be seen. We’ll be watching it as closely as possible,” Kirby said.
The day before, the General Staff reported for the first time since the spring that the probability of an attempted offensive from the territory of Belarus is increasing. This was stated at a briefing on October 20 by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov.
“The aggressive rhetoric of the military-political leadership of Russia and Belarus is intensifying, which is accompanied by the deployment of the regional grouping of the troops of the so-called Union State. The threat of resuming the offensive on the northern front by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is growing,” he said.
According to the general, Russia may try to cut off the western regions of Ukraine from the rest of the territory at the same time.
“This time, the direction of the offensive can be changed to the west of the Belarusian border to cut the main logistical arteries, the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from the partner countries,“ the general explained.
As previously reported, on October 10, Lukashenko announced the deployment of a joint regional Belarusian-Russian grouping of troops. The group will be based on the Army of Belarus. Also, an inspection of the armed forces of Belarus has begun since October 11.
About 9,000 Russian servicemen, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and personnel are arriving in Belarus as part of the deployment of the regional grouping of troops.
In addition, about 170 tanks, up to 200 armored combat vehicles and about 100 guns and mortars with a caliber of more than 100 mm will be transferred to the country along with personnel.
The first echelons of Russian servicemen, who are part of the regional group of troops, began arriving in Belarus on October 15.
On October 16, flights of Russian MiG-31 fighters were recorded in the capital of Belarus. The fighter jets were landing at the Machulishchy airport. This is an active military airfield near Minsk.
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