US Expected to Cease Serving as NATO’s Primary Conventional Force After 2027

Senior Pentagon officials have warned European partners that while arms supplies to Ukraine will increase, the United States will no longer serve as the cornerstone of NATO’s defense after 2027.

The Kyiv Post reported on this, citing its own sources familiar with negotiations among NATO allies.

The Trump administration has told European allies in private discussions that Washington will no longer be the primary conventional defense provider beyond 2027, the Kyiv Post reported, citing three people familiar with this week’s classified talks.

According to the briefings, the Indo-Pacific remains the administration’s top priority, and the United States “cannot fight two wars at once.” This makes a structural shift in conventional defense responsibilities within NATO to Europe unavoidable.

Despite the strategic shift, officials said arms supplies to Ukraine were continuing and were expected to increase before Christmas.

“Support for Ukraine remains, but Europe must be prepared for a NATO in which the United States is no longer the automatic first responder,” a senior official familiar with the talks told the media.

European capitals were told that there would be “no surprises” ahead. The Pentagon had already signaled its intention to reduce its contribution to NATO, but the latest briefings included a far more explicit ultimatum.

If Europe does not take the lead within NATO by 2027, the United States is prepared to withdraw from key planning processes, including the NATO Force Model (NFM) and the NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP).

For now, U.S. officials will continue to take part, but only to help transfer responsibilities to Europe. After 2027, Europe will have to “figure it out” without relying on U.S. participation as a guarantee, one official said.

A European defense adviser briefed on the matter described the tone as “firm, definitive, and clearly strategic.”

In late November, it was reported that the Trump administration was considering whether Germany could eventually lead NATO’s Joint Force in Europe, rather than the United States.

From the U.S. perspective, this could happen as “Europe increasingly takes responsibility for its own security.” The role is traditionally held by a U.S. four-star general — since July 2025, General Alexus Grynkewich.