Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense has identified 2027 as the likely year for a potential Chinese invasion of the island.

This was reported by Bloomberg.

The Ministry of Defense mentioned this timeline in a document published to inform lawmakers about upcoming military exercises simulating a Chinese military attack.

In addition, the duration of this year’s exercises will be extended to ten days, twice the usual length.

Over the past decade, Taiwan’s largest annual military exercises have not included a specific year for a possible Chinese invasion.

However, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo refrained from naming a precise timeframe for a possible aggression.

Focusing this year’s exercises on 2027 could be a political strategy to overcome a deadlock in Taiwan’s parliament, where opposition parties have challenged some defense spending proposals.

“This could make the opposition parties and the public feel that increasing the military budget is an urgent necessity,” said Jack Chen, director of Formosa Defense Vision, an advocacy group.

US officials stated last year that China was preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027, citing Beijing’s active build-up of fighter jets, warships, and plans to double its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles.

Development of China’s amphibious capabilities

Recently, the PLA Navy’s amphibious capabilities have been growing rapidly, especially with the active expansion of the fleet of universal amphibious dock ships, large amphibious ships, small boats, and the use of civilian barges and ferries.

Since 2015, all Chinese shipbuilding companies have been required to design and construct transport vessels according to military standards.

The civilian fleet is increasingly being used for covert troop movements within China, as well as during military exercises.

Beijing recently tested new auxiliary vessels designed to land armored vehicles from civilian barges onto unprepared shores. This decision is aimed at significantly expanding the use of the civilian fleet in military operations.

Mass construction of these ships began at Chinese shipyards in early 2024. These ships play a crucial role in China’s new amphibious concept, enabling the rapid deployment of heavy equipment directly to shore.

At the stern of these ships is a large open platform designed to receive equipment and cargo from other ships. According to the designers, armored vehicles loaded onto the ship pass through its hull and exit via a retractable ramp up to 120 meters long.

Published video footage shows that this design allows ships to bypass difficult-to-land sections of the coastline. The equipment is landed directly on solid ground, which significantly speeds up troop deployment.

A key feature of these vessels is their ability to receive equipment directly from conventional cargo ships, which increases the flexibility of landing operations.

Another important design feature is the retractable outriggers, which enhance the stability of the vessel when approaching the coast. They reduce rolling, enabling landings even in adverse weather conditions.

Once the vessel reaches the shore, it essentially becomes a temporary pier, simplifying the unloading process and ensuring continuous operation during the landing.