Russia May Start New War Within a Year – Swedish Intelligence

The Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) has reported an increased military threat from Russia over the next 12 months.

MUST, the intelligence service of the Swedish Armed Forces, outlined this assessment in the agency’s annual report.

The service specifies that the assessment refers to potential strikes on individual military facilities or units.

MUST Director General Thomas Nilsson stated that the risks could increase and described the situation as becoming more tense.

The report identifies Russia as the main military threat to Sweden and NATO and states that the threat level is expected to rise.

Analysts note that the current assessment is more specific than in previous years and refers to the existence of Russian operational planning.

The agency outlines three time horizons for potential aggression: short, medium and long term.

Within the next 0-12 months, the risk of a limited armed attack is considered possible, including strikes on individual military facilities or units.

In a 3-5 year timeframe, Russia could develop the capability to conduct larger-scale operations, including achieving local air superiority or imposing a naval blockade.

In the long term, over 5-10 years, the report projects the potential for a broader military campaign, including control over significant territories.

MUST also warns of risks related to hybrid and sabotage activities and highlights what it describes as a low threshold for the use of force.

The agency’s leadership stressed the importance of deterrence and called for reviewing the pace of Sweden’s rearmament.

Sweden has recently stepped up discussions with Britain and France regarding the extension of a nuclear umbrella.