Oreshnik Missile Lacks Warhead Guidance System — Research

The Oreshnik (Kedr) medium-range ballistic missile, used in a strike on the Lviv region, does not have a warhead guidance system.

A specialized Russian media outlet reported on this, citing the results of an analysis of missile fragments.

According to the findings, the new modification lacks a system of individually guided reentry vehicles — the section of a ballistic missile that separates from the final stage, carries multiple warheads, and controls their deployment along preset trajectories.

At the same time, the warhead likely uses a sealed instrument compartment typical of designs developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, as well as a gas-jet orientation system used during warhead separation.

The warheads themselves, according to available assessments, resemble classic unguided warheads but serve as carriers for submunitions.

Overall, the missile is believed to be capable of carrying six warheads, each containing six submunitions, for a total of up to 36 elements.

The missile’s launch weight is estimated at between 1,250 kg, typical for the Topol-M/RS-12M2 class, and 3,000 kg.

Preliminary calculations suggest that, using standard first and second stages of an intercontinental ballistic missile, a range of up to 4,100 km could be achieved with such a payload.

In that case, the estimated weight of each warhead with a submunition payload could reach up to 400 kg.

Missile debris

On January 11, journalists presented, for the first time, detailed footage of components of the Oreshnik (Kedr) missile that specialists from the Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Expertise are currently examining.

Media representatives were shown debris of the missile used by Russia to strike the Dnipro in November 2024. No casualties were reported as a result of that attack.

According to journalists, despite Russian claims of a “major technological breakthrough,” Ukrainian experts who analyzed the debris did not identify any fundamentally new technical solutions.

Among the items displayed were remnants of the gyroscope from the missile’s inertial navigation system.

In addition, Soviet-era electric vacuum tubes were found on the control boards. Based on external characteristics, they are likely krytrons — components typically used as ultra-fast electronic switches — though it cannot be ruled out that they are high-frequency resonators.

Markings on several components indicate they were manufactured in early 2018 and were likely originally intended for other projects.

Problems with the warhead

Journalists also showed a wiring unit for individual warheads, confirming earlier information that the Oreshnik missile’s payload consists of six sub-elements, each of which is believed to further separate into six smaller elements.

At the same time, analysis of video footage from the strike on the suburb of Lviv on the night of January 9, 2026, indicates that only four groups of striking elements reached the ground, followed by the impact of two additional individual elements. A significant distance was observed between impact sites.

This may suggest that the missile’s ultra-high speed creates problems not only for accuracy in a conventional kinetic configuration, in which warheads contain no explosives and rely solely on mass and velocity, but also that not all warheads physically survive atmospheric reentry.

Estimates place the terminal velocity at over Mach 11, or roughly 3,740 meters per second.

In June 2025, armored vehicle researcher Andriy Tarasenko published a Chinese study on the destructive effects of high-speed kinetic munitions similar to the Oreshnik warhead on his Telegram channel. The study indicates that Russian claims about the effectiveness of such warheads are significantly overstated.

“Based on an experiment with a prototype ultra-high-speed kinetic projectile at a test range in the Gobi Desert, a tungsten rod weighing 140 kg and traveling at 4,650 m/s struck the surface, forming a parabolic crater 3.0 meters deep and 4 meters in diameter,” the researchers reported.

It is reported that the Russian medium-range ballistic missile is based on the RS-26 Rubezh platform. At the same time, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence has stated that the system’s actual designation is not Oreshnik, but Kedr.