Jets, Long-Range Air Defense and Drones: French Journalists Learn Details of Historic Deal With Ukraine

French journalists have received information from the Élysée on which weapons systems will be included in the “historic deal” with Ukraine.

Jean-Dominique Merchet, a diplomatic and defense correspondent for L’Opinion, reported the details.

According to information provided to the journalist at the Élysée Palace, a briefing with industry representatives is scheduled for the morning of November 17 during a meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky, after which a letter of intent is expected to be signed.

The Élysée claims that the briefing will cover Rafale aircraft and their weapons systems, the long-range SAMP/T NG air defense system with Aster 30 B1 NT missiles, capable of intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 1,500 km, as well as GF300 radars and drone systems.

As Merchet notes, a Rafale delivery could indeed be significant enough to merit the term “historic.” The question, however, is in what form.

Two options are under consideration and are not mutually exclusive.

To speed delivery, France could transfer Rafale fighters from its own Air Force. However, Gen. Jérôme Bellanger, the Air Force chief of staff, recently stressed that the number of aircraft in service is already “too small” and that the Rafale fleet is “overused,” with an overload rate of about 15%.

The French Air Force currently fields 185 combat aircraft, of which around 100 are Rafales. Bellanger estimates that France needs at least 230.

According to Merchet, a more likely scenario is one in which Ukraine is promised new-build aircraft — but that would take time. Typically, about 3 years pass between contract signing and delivery.

As of June 30, Dassault Aviation had orders for at least 239 Rafales, not including new or potential export contracts.

The Dassault plant in Mérignac is increasing production, aiming for three Rafales per month, with the potential to rise to five. Scaling up production takes time, as all industrial cooperation must adjust to the new pace.

In late October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said up to 250 new fighter jets are needed to modernize the Air Force. He noted that three negotiations are ongoing simultaneously — for the F-16, Gripen, and Rafale.

Shortly afterward, Dassault Aviation stated about its readiness to supply Rafale fighters to Ukraine’s Air Force.

Read more about Rafale aircraft and the SAMP/T long-range air defense system in our special reports: “Dassault Rafale: The Path to Europe’s Most Successful Fighter and a Symbol of French Aviation Independence” and “Franco-Italian SAMP/T SAM: Ukraine’s Most Non-Public Air Defense System — History, Development, Capabilities.”