In November, an ISW Analyst Manipulated the Situation in Myrnohrad to Rig Map Bets

An analyst at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) updated the map of hostilities in Ukraine, enabling users of a betting platform to receive money for a forecast on Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region.

This was reported by the journal of the American think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft – Responsible Statecraft (RS).

It reported that on November 15, when the Russians were trying to advance to Myrnohrad, the Polymarket platform accepted bets on whether and when the occupiers would capture the city.

Users invested $1.3 million betting on whether the Russian invaders would capture the city.

If the invaders captured the settlement before nightfall – an event that seemed extremely unlikely to most observers – several players could have made a profit of up to 33,000%.

In the end, these players got their money, but not through the capture of Myrnohrad, which is still being fought over.

It happened due to an ISW employee’s intervention in the interactive map of hostilities in Ukraine, which the center updates daily. It is this data that Polymarket often relies on to determine the outcome of bets placed on the course of hostilities.

According to the tech publication 404 Media, before determining which bet had won, someone at ISW edited the map to show that Russia had taken control of a key intersection in the city, despite no evidence that this had actually happened.

After Polymarket paid out the money to the winners, the ISW map edit disappeared.

As early as November 17, the think tank stated that the misleading and unauthorized changes were made without approval. The next day, the name of one of the researchers who was among those who created the daily ISW maps also disappeared from the center’s website.

The employee was reportedly fired. However, it is not known whether his actions were directly related to the betting.

It is currently unknown whether there have been other similar incidents. However, some players on Polymarket claim that ISW showed Russia’s seizure of the railway in Kupiansk on October 29, just before the betting decision was announced, while known monitoring projects at the time did not confirm this promotion.