Estonian Intelligence: Russia Suspends Baltic Provocations to Secure Its ‘Shadow Fleet’

The Russian Federation has stopped provoking NATO countries in the Baltic Sea after the Alliance took countermeasures.

Kaupo Rosin, Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, said this in an interview with ERR.

According to him, Russia has adjusted its behavior and is now trying to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.

In particular, the Russians have begun planning strike UAV (drone) flights more cautiously when attacking Ukraine. Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea are “strictly adhering to flight routes” to avoid incidents with NATO countries.

Since the launch of the Baltic Sentry mission, there have been no repeat incidents involving damage to underwater cables.

“Of course, this does not rule out the possibility of future incidents, as military activity remains high and the war in Ukraine continues. Theoretically, such events are possible, but at the moment we see no signs that Russia is deliberately trying to escalate the situation,” Rosin said.

Estonia’s chief intelligence official believes that “Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or NATO as a whole.”

At this stage, the Kremlin regime’s priority is to ensure the safe passage of oil tankers, particularly vessels of the so-called ‘shadow fleet,’ as most of Russia’s oil exports pass through this region.

Kaupo Rosin believes that Europe should continue to increase pressure on the ‘shadow fleet.’ The goal of such pressure should be to change the stance of the countries whose flags the shadow fleet’s tankers sail under, as well as the insurance companies that service Russian shipments.

Estonian intelligence also believes that Russia is attempting to slow down Europe’s rearmament, and that the peace-loving narratives promoted by Vladimir Putin are subordinated to this goal.

Russia is actively working with certain political parties or groups within society, promoting the idea that an arms race is pointless, that it diverts funds from social needs, and that it harms Europe itself. “The aim is to divide societies and create political pressure on decision-making processes,” stated the Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

In September 2025 three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. Just a week ago, three Russian border guards also entered Estonian territory.