China Can Send 300 Thousand Troops to Taiwan Within 10 Days

China’s landing ships can land 21,000 troops in the first wave of an attack, and 300,000 in 10 days if civilian vessels are mobilized.

This is according to an analytical report by the Center for Transportation Strategies.

The confrontation around Taiwan could become the next hot spot on the current unstable geopolitical map of the world. Taiwan’s defense ministry has identified 2027 as the likely time for China’s invasion of the island.

Beijing’s main military power in the conquest of the island should be the navy, which China is actively building up. For example, China puts into operation 20-25 times more warships per year than the Royal Navy of the United Kingdom.

On December 4, 2025, China conducted its largest naval operation in the East China and South China Seas. The operation involved a hundred ships of the navy and coast guard.

To capture Taiwan, it is necessary to deliver a large number of soldiers and equipment, so China is rapidly building up not only its military but also its commercial fleet, including ferries, which, along with fishing vessels, are part of the maritime militia.

In 2022, Five Eyes, an intelligence-sharing alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States, tracked about 30 Chinese commercial ferries during military exercises involving the People’s Liberation Army.

In addition, civilian vessels have heavy traffic in the Taiwan Strait, so this could help conceal preliminary preparations for an invasion. This fits in well with Chinese military doctrine, which calls for the use of deception to achieve the effect of surprise in war, as the scale of the invasion would be difficult to conceal.

Analysts estimate that China’s landing ships could land 21,000 troops in the first wave of an attack. Combined with mobilized civilian vessels, the army could transport 300,000 within 10 days.

At the same time, the use of formally civilian vessels complicates the counteraction, as an attack on civilian vessels violates international legal norms unless they have been clearly requisitioned for military use.

In March, China tested newly developed auxiliary vessels. They are supposed to ensure the landing of armored vehicles from civilian barges on unprepared coastlines and can be used to capture Taiwan.

In the stern of such vessels there is a large open platform for receiving equipment and cargo from other vessels. This equipment is supposed to go along the ship and come ashore on an elongated folding ramp about 120 meters long.