On the night of June 6 at 02:50 am, the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was destroyed.

A large mass of water was released from the Kakhovka Reservoir as a result of large-scale destruction, and the water level in it is rapidly decreasing.

As of now, the Russian authority’s representatives did not officially take responsibility for blowing up the dam.

A number of propaganda media sources sponsored by the Russian Federation are actively promoting the information agenda on the alleged attacks on the dam by Ukrainian artillery and Vilkha multiple rocket launchers. They allege that the structure was destroyed as a result of these strikes. However, no craters from ammunition hits, debris, or other corresponding traces are visible in the vicinity of the dam and its remains. There are no video confirmations of the alleged attacks, therefore, the facts obviously contradict the statements of the Russians.

Generally, the likelihood of external factors and especially the types of weapons in service with Ukraine and its allies destroying such a colossal structure is doubtful.

The realistic version of the dam’s destruction is the controlled explosion of it from the inside with pre-prepared significant volumes of explosives located at critical points of the structure, which served as a support and ensured the entire structural strength.

Assessment of hydroelectric power station destruction

Russian invaders carrying guards near the dam published a video capturing the scale of the destruction of the hydroelectric power station. At the station, the turbine department was completely destroyed: part of it went underwater. A large section of the reinforced concrete dam wall was demolished by explosion and water flow.

The press service of Ukrhydroenergo reported that the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was completely destroyed as a result of the explosion of the turbine department. The power plant is not recoverable.

The comparative images of the destroyed dam and satellite images allow the approximate measurement of the length of the destroyed site.

Based on the calculation of the distance between the surviving pillars of the roadway above the dam and the building of the turbine department, it can be estimated that the dam’s breach was 300-350 meters wide. The height of the dam’s destruction remains unknown.

Humanitarian implications

According to the Office of the President, as of 11:30 am, about 80 settlements downstream from the hydroelectric station were in the flooding zone.

The Head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration noted that the settlements of Tiahynka, Lvove, Odradokamyanka (Beryslav District), Ivanivka, Mykilske, Tokarivka, Poniativka, Bilozerka, and Kherson (Ostriv microdistrict) were completely or partially flooded.

According to preliminary estimates, about 16 thousand people are located in the critical zone on the right bank of the Dnipro River. Mass evacuation is underway.

Currently, there is no reliable information on the situation in the occupied left bank of the Kherson region. Nevertheless, given the massive damage to the dam, it is clear that the flow of water will flood vast areas in the lowlands.

The photo of the elevation map captures that the entire left bank is much lower than the right bank. Therefore, the flow of water will first most likely flood settlements in the territory controlled by the enemy.

The red zones of the right bank reach 50 meters above sea level on average, and the heights of the left bank highlighted in green barely reach 12-15 meters.

For understanding, as of June 4, the French world water monitoring service Hydroweb recorded water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir to be at 17.3 meters above sea level.

Military consequences

Since the liberation of occupied Kherson and the right bank of the Kherson region, the issue of recapturing the left-bank part of the region by the Ukrainian army has been raised. The Russians faced the risk of the liberation of the left-bank territories of Ukraine, as well as possible landing operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Russians justified the latter by constant clashes with the Ukrainian military on the Dnipro, battles for a bridgehead on the islands near Kherson, and the active destruction of Russian air defense systems and artillery, which could be interpreted as an attempt to prepare a bridgehead. Since April, the Russian military has noted the active work of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the left bank, which in some places turned into a temporary seizure of the coastal strip.

Considering those circumstances, a possible reason for destroying the hydroelectric power station could be the Russians attempting to prevent potential operations of the Ukrainian military to force the Dnipro in the Kherson area.

The release of large volumes of water will certainly lead to the expansion of the river and strong siltation of the Dnipro banks. For some time, this will greatly complicate or make it completely impossible for the Ukrainian military to conduct landing operations from Nova Kakhovka to the Dnipro–Buh estuary.

However, in a few weeks, the water level will decrease, turning the completely flooded areas of the left bank into a number of archipelagos delimited by numerous small rivers. The latter, theoretically, will be easier to overcome than a continuous water space several kilometers long.

However, the invader forces also suffered damage due to the dam’s detonation.

After escaping from the right bank of the Kherson region, Russian troops actively engaged in constructing fortifications on the left bank, building them from the Black Sea to Nova Kakhovka. As a result of the explosion, all these positions were flooded, and fortifications and minefields were destroyed.

The invaders are publishing a video capturing the rapid flows of the Dnipro washing away anti-tank mines, which detonate when hitting stones.

Also, a number of Russian media associated with the invasion forces military reported on social media that some Russian Armed Forces units were blocked by the flow of water on islands near Kherson, and their positions were flooded.

Who’s to blame?

In October 2022, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reported that the Russians had been mining the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant since April.

“The detonation of the dam was planned in advance – the main mining work was carried out back in April. During this week, additional mining of locks and pillars of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was carried out. Two military KamAZ trucks without drivers are on the dam. Both vehicles are fully loaded with boxes of explosives,” the DIU press service reports.

Today, on June 6, Andrii Yusov, the DIU representative, noted that the intelligence agency has proof of the explosives and equipment being moved by the Russians to remotely explode the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

“There will be accurate estimates of the power of explosions, how much explosives are required for this – all this will be calculated. But the facts of the explosives and equipment being moved by ruscists to carry out a controlled remote explosion certainly serve as such facts and evidence. Ukraine has repeatedly made them public,” he said during the broadcast on the We – Ukraine TV channel.

Also, less than a week before the dam was blown up, the Russian government approved a resolution on introducing marathons for “investigating accidents at hazardous production facilities and hydraulic structures due to military operations.” The law was enforced since it was signed on May 31 and will remain in force until 2028.