Submarine Survival Could Drop to 5%: China Develops AI to Track Enemy Subs

Chinese researchers have developed an artificial intelligence system designed to detect submarines, South China Morning Post reported.

According to the media, the technology could reduce the chances of a submarine surviving in a naval conflict to 5%.

In August, a team led by Meng Hao, a senior engineer at the China Helicopter Research and Development Institute, published their findings in the Electronics Optics & Control academic journal.

The system processes real-time data from hydroacoustic buoys, underwater sensors, and radars, while also factoring in oceanographic parameters such as water temperature and salinity.

This allows the creation of a dynamic underwater map and the detection of even the quietest submarines.

The AI algorithms can adapt to traditional evasion techniques, including zigzag maneuvers, decoys, and drone deployments.

According to computer simulations, the system successfully identified targets in about 95% of cases, raising questions about the effectiveness of standard camouflage methods.

The AI also converts complex datasets into actionable recommendations, helping personnel make rapid decisions under stressful conditions.

Meng Hao’s team is already working on system upgrades. Future versions will integrate drone swarms, surface ships, and autonomous underwater vehicles.

The upgrades aim to create a three-dimensional, self-learning detection network capable of adapting to new evasion strategies and scanning the ocean in real time.

If confirmed, these capabilities could undermine one of the three main pillars of nuclear deterrence: submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Military analysts say publications of this kind are intended not just to highlight technological advances, but also to signal China’s strategic strength to the global community.

Beijing currently maintains a significant military presence in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.